A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
